Solar storms can cripple technology in space

Darmstadt / New York. Solar storms can create wonderful light effects in the sky like polar lights, but they can also cause an emergency. For the Earth as a planet, it is not a danger, but rather a danger to people in an increasingly high-tech world. During a solar storm, high-energy particles and massive clouds of plasma rush toward the planets from the center of the solar system and can dramatically disrupt infrastructure on and around Earth. The American space company SpaceX, which lost about 40 of its satellites as a result of a solar storm, had to experience the painful consequences of the so-called space weather.

Solar storms occur when a star erupts. It is likely to become more frequent again in the coming years: since the end of 2019, the Sun’s activity has increased again in a roughly eleven-year cycle, with a maximum projected between 2024 and 2026. Violent outbursts of particles and radiation could be in activity stages Higher has stronger consequences on Earth with increased mechanization.

Severe solar storms can have far-reaching consequences

According to the European Space Agency (ESA), a solar storm throws billions of tons of high-energy particles and plasma into space, which can travel at speeds of 150 million kilometers to Earth. The Earth is actually protected by the magnetic field and atmosphere, but such storms can cause serious damage. Satellites can be destroyed, and power grids or communications and navigation systems can collapse.

“It is possible at any time that a very severe solar storm could occur and could have far-reaching consequences,” says Melanie Hill, space weather mission coordinator at the European Space Agency’s site in Darmstadt. From the satellite’s control center site, European astronauts control their observations of solar storms. It is not “very likely” that all satellites will be down, but some may be affected.

Short warning time

In order to protect the electricity networks located on the ground, you need advance warning. If you can regulate the lower capacitances in the generators and transformers, this may be enough to protect them from damage. However, it is very difficult to predict the events of the century. “The latest calculations indicate that we can expect an extreme space weather event within the next 10 years with a probability of about 10 percent.”

The warning time is only short because the Sun’s particles are moving very fast across the vastness of the Solar System. “If we couldn’t notice something like that, we would be at risk at any time,” Hill says. There are actually some control points that provide data. However, for more reliable predictions, the capacity is still being expanded.

SpaceX’s satellites will burn up

With the “Vigil” probe, ESA hopes to get a better view of solar storms. “The Vigil mission, due to its position in space, will be able to take a closer look at potentially dangerous solar activity,” ESA mission chief Giuseppe Mandorlo recently explained. According to Hill, the mission should begin in 2027 and, unlike previous observation options, could look at the sun from the side and track storms.

Esa was surprised by the extent of the damage to the private space company, billionaire Elon Musk. “It wasn’t actually a particularly strong solar storm, which is why no official warning was sent out,” Hill says. The SpaceX satellites were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Because of the storm, the atmosphere became so dense that orbiters at an altitude of 200 km could not reach their target point, which was actually 300 km above, with their own power and would now burn.

Experts disagree about the failure of the solar cycle

With the Starlink system, SpaceX wants to create fast Internet connections directly via its satellites. SpaceX is doing a “good job” with Starlink, according to NASA. NASA and NOAA are currently working with SpaceX to further improve Starlink’s operations. NASA is also working to better understand weather events in space.

It is not yet clear how intense the solar cycle eventually began. In 2020, experts from the Commission on Solar Cycle Prediction (SCPP) assumed a somewhat faint boundary similar to the previous cycle. However, a team led by Scott McIntosh of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder contradicted these predictions, and the researchers considered a strong maximum with many solar storms to be the most likely. It remains to be seen what the correct prediction is.