Japan may be next in line to land on the moon

Japan has twice failed to make its mark on the moon in the past 12 months, but optimism surrounds its latest attempt that could make the Asian nation the fifth country to touch the moon’s surface.

“I have no reason to believe Japan won’t succeed,” said Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“The two failures they had previously were completely different.”

Bingen warned that despite the country’s strong space science programme, the mission is “technically very advanced” and will be difficult.

Last month, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Launching a spacecraft to explore the moon From Tanegashima Space Center.

The agency said that the rocket carried an X-ray telescope aimed at calculating the speed and composition of what lies between galaxies, in addition to a lightweight lander scheduled to land on the moon in the first half of 2024.

The Lunar Exploration Intelligent Lander, or SLIM, successfully completed the mission “Earth orbit stage” On October 1, which means it moved out of Earth’s orbit and headed toward the Moon.

The East Asian country’s third attempt comes just five months after Japanese startup ispace failed in its quest to become the world’s first private company to land on the moon due to a software glitch. Japan too Neglected efforts To land its Omotenashi spacecraft on the surface of the moon in November after it failed to stabilize communications.

Japan’s success this time could be a leap for broader space exploration.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency said in a report that unlike successful lunar landings from other countries, SLIM could be the first lunar lander with an accuracy of 100 meters, compared to the usual range of a few kilometers.

“If you are going to establish a human base on the Moon, you need to land accurately, accurately and reliably,” Bingen said, explaining that this will help determine where scientists want to explore in the southern region of the Moon. Discover resources.

In August, India became the fourth country to land on the moon, but the first to land on its unexplored South Pole, where there have been recent discoveries of traces of water ice.

“The story of finding water on the Moon, but also in different places in the solar system as part of our search for extraterrestrial life, is always exciting,” said Ehud Behar, former director of the Norman and Helen Asher Space Research Institute.

Behar also stressed that India’s recovery from the failed moon landing in 2019 is something from which lessons must be taken.

“It shows that they learn from their mistakes, which is a very important aspect of space exploration,” said Behar, who also serves as the Philip and Sarah Gottlieb Memorial Chair at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology.

“If you’re a software engineer and you write a piece of software, someone can find a bug and you can fix it. In space, you have to go back five to six years to rebuild and relaunch and make sure your next mission is a success.”

As the space race in Asia continues to heat up, the United States is becoming increasingly eager to cooperate with the region, and confronting China is one of the biggest factors, according to Bingen.

In January, the United States and Japan I signed an agreement To enhance their bilateral cooperation in the field of space, which includes working together to explore the moon and other planets. Japan was also one of the countries Seven original partner countries To sign the Artemis Accords in 2020.

The Artemis Accords are a set of statements that outline how countries can cooperate peacefully and responsibly when exploring the Moon.

“China wants to set the rules in their favor… We’ve seen them use that playbook here on land… We’ve seen what they’ve done in the South China Sea in terms of asserting that it’s theirs,” Bingen said.

“I think they will seek to do the same thing on the moon. That’s their playbook.”

Bingen also noted that although China is “part of the equation,” it is not the only reason for cooperation in space exploration.

“Everything from national pride, scientific discovery, economic benefit, national security, technological advancement…all of these reasons will continue to drive the race to the moon.”

Other countries in Asia are part of the Artemis Accords as well. India became the latest signatory in the region when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States in June.

Singapore remains The only country in Southeast Asia that signed the agreement.

The competition between the United States and China does not stop there, as both countries aim to send astronauts into space by this decade.

“If you ask me as a scientist, I will tell you that sending astronauts into space is a colossal waste of money,” Behar said. “Sending a robot to conduct tests in space is much cheaper and safer.”

“But as a human being, the excitement of exploring space in person will never stop, and I don’t think it should stop,” he added. “Having colonies on the Moon or Mars is a dream that may come true one day.”

— CNBC’s Michael Sheetz contributed to this report.