Strikes return to boost November jobs report
Investors will be closely watching the November jobs report on Friday — and the end of last month’s strikes by auto workers and actors should translate into more payroll gains in the report.
“We expect the November employment report to show an acceleration in job growth, driven by the return of striking UAW and SAG-AFTRA workers,” wrote Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “The return of striking workers will amplify the headline: We expect the end of the UAW and SAG-AFTRA strike to boost job growth by about 45,000. Adjusting for these two strikes, we estimate job growth of 160,000, down from 183,000 in October.”
Employment in the manufacturing sector fell by 35,000 jobs in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 jobs in the auto and parts sector “largely due to strike activity,” according to European Central Bank data. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was the first time the impact of the auto strike appeared in the monthly jobs report.
Along with job losses in the auto sector, employment in the motion picture and sound recording industries fell by another 5,000 in October after falling by 7,000 in September and 17,000 in August, “reflecting the impact of labor disputes.” Since May, the date the writers’ strike first began, employment in those industries has fallen by 44,000.
The United Auto Workers reached agreements with all three of Detroit’s major automakers at the end of October, after 46 days of strike action. Actors union SAG-AFTRA ended a 118-day strike on November 9 after concluding a five-month writers’ strike on September 27.
Oxford Economics added: “Given the strike-related noise, we expect the jobs report to be consistent with easing labor market conditions, allowing the Fed to abandon further interest rate hikes. We continue to believe that interest rate cuts are still several months away.” .
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