April 17, 2024

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Minor but good changes for the Texas solar eclipse forecast

Minor but good changes for the Texas solar eclipse forecast

Weather forecast for Monday, April 8:

We are less than a week away from a total solar eclipse. Monday looked bleak for the entire state. Today both long range models show a slight improvement in weather display.

The key to our eclipse weather are these two areas of low pressure near Alaska and Russia.

These depressions are the key to our weather Monday 8 (Copyright 2024 KPRC Click2Houston – All Rights Reserved.)

Here's the difference from yesterday. The first dip, instead of moving to the northeast, has a more northward movement today. The second bottom is still in the same place. But this first dip changes the jet stream. It almost creates a small ridge of high pressure over Texas. I don't want to exaggerate this too much but what this has done is bring up the possibility of some gaps in the clouds on Monday.

Monday, April 8 at 1 p.m (Copyright 2024 KPRC Click2Houston – All Rights Reserved.)

These forecasts will change:

After the cold front moves through Sunday, there is a chance of rain from Monday to Wednesday. Monday's chance in Houston is lower but not zero. But at least this is moving in the right direction.

What to expect until Thursday next week (Copyright 2024 KPRC Click2Houston – All Rights Reserved.)
Little hope:

The models we look at are the American and European views. Yesterday, rain fell statewide in the US model. Now the only rain is in southeast Texas. The European now has a few gaps of sunshine compared to yesterday. The hope is that this trend of drier weather and clearer skies will continue along the route. I'm monitoring this carefully and will get updates every morning and Frank and Justin will provide you with the forecast in the evening.

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While both models remain cloudy, there is a slight improvement. (Copyright 2024 KPRC Click2Houston – All Rights Reserved.)
Important types of withdrawals:

Worst case scenario From 1:00 PM to 2:00 PM on April 8th we have low stratus clouds. These clouds will completely block the sun's rays and it will be hopeless to experience a total solar eclipse. It will get dark during a total eclipse, but it will be similar to what it looks like when a strong storm approaches.

Low stratus clouds bring overcast skies (Copyright 2024 KPRC Click2Houston – All Rights Reserved.)

Medium level cumulus clouds Depending on where you view the total eclipse, it will last from a minute to approximately four and a half minutes. Cumulus clouds have openings but sometimes the ecliptic clouds obscure them. This would be incredibly frustrating! In your mind you will feel the clock ticking away. When clouds cover the sun, look away from the eclipse and see the clouds along the horizon. The clouds will change colors and the horizon in all directions will look like a sunset. When the clouds move away, look at the sun.

Medium level cumulus clouds (Copyright 2024 KPRC Click2Houston – All Rights Reserved.)

High level cirrus clouds – Although these clouds are not completely clear, they are thin enough that you will be able to experience the total eclipse.

Although it's not perfect, it's better than the alternatives (Copyright 2024 KPRC Click2Houston – All Rights Reserved.)
What then:

Tomorrow's expectations are key. Will this trend of drier weather continue for the path of the total eclipse, or will it return to looking like yesterday’s forecast?

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Day 3 Forecast Late Friday is when the high-resolution forecasts start to appear. These will be more accurate with the type of clouds we can expect on Monday the 8th. Each model run on Saturday and Sunday will show details of cloud cover in Texas as well as in the rest of the country.

Let's hope for the best.

Copyright 2024 KPRC Click2Houston – All Rights Reserved.