Chocolate prices rise on Valentine's Day as cocoa shortages rise

“This led to a decline in production and caused a shortage of cocoa supplies in the market,” said Sergey Chetvertakov, principal research analyst for cocoa and sugar markets at S&P Global. He said this is the third year in a row that cocoa supply has been in short supply, adding that it is not about to improve in the near future.

Cocoa futures are up nearly 40% year-to-date to hit an all-time intraday high of $5,874 per metric ton on Thursday.

“What's really driving all of this is the El Niño that's here now. It's really impacting the yield,” said David Branch, senior vice president of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

He pointed out that this also affects sugar crops.

The El Niño weather phenomenon caused temperatures to rise in Southeast Asia, India and parts of Africa, leading to higher prices for soft commodities such as sugar and cocoa last year.

“Chocolate prices will be higher,” Branch told CNBC. ““Product manufacturers just raise margins and tell retailers to eat it, and they have to try to sell it at a higher price.”

Chocolate prices rose 11% in the past year, according to the NielsenIQ consumer information database, using data collected through Jan. 27. “Chocolate prices are the highest we've seen in years,” a NielsenIQ representative said.

However, experts don't expect this rise to deter sweet tooth lovers just yet.

“There is still a lot of enthusiasm for candy on Valentine's Day,” the National Confectioners Association told CNBC via email, adding that 92% of Americans surveyed said they plan to share chocolate and sweets on Valentine's Day this year.

“For Valentine's Day, [chocolates] “It's like a special treatment and many people should take it,” Chetvertakov said. He noted that despite the high prices, the chocolate market is strong in mature markets such as Europe and North America. However, he noted that there has been demand destruction in Asia.

Chocolate and cocoa have historically been associated with Love and fertility Its history dates back to the Mayan and Aztec civilizations, which Introduced goods to Western Europe Through the Spanish conquistadors. Now, chocolate and Valentine's Day have become synonymous, even if critics say the association is perpetuated through marketing gimmicks.

But with stubborn global inflation, sweets also represent a more accessible way to join in the festivities. Kim, a 28-year-old woman living in Singapore, said she usually chooses to bake cakes for her loved ones on Valentine's Day instead.

“Besides capitalism… I think it might be because it's easier, like it's less expensive than going out to dinner or buying gifts,” she said. “Usually the metaphor is that you give a card and chocolates. I think it's easier to do something than to do nothing at all.”

But even outside of the annual love season, demand for chocolate remains relatively strong even during economic downturns, according to the Mintec food commodity price database.

“This may be in line with the human tendency to seek small pleasures during turbulent times, and chocolate is known to be a natural mood enhancer,” Mintik said in her report. Recent report.

However, chocolate isn't the only Valentine's Day dessert that will make a dent in the wallet this year. It's also the season when demand for lobster and beef in general is high, as consumers eat out during the Valentine's Day season.

Mintec's Valentine's Day Meal IndexPrices of popular Valentine's Day staples such as chocolate, lobster tails, beef and potatoes rose 13.8% year-on-year in January. The jump was driven by higher prices for lobster tails, the report said, which noted that the January average for lobster tails is 40% higher than last year as a result of a lack of production in key regions such as Maine and Canada.

Lobster prices are expected to remain high in February due to lower supplies from Canada and the United States, Mintec subsidiary Orner Barry said in a report released on February 8.

This year, Kim and her partner of six years opted for a simpler, more relaxed Valentine's Day dinner — a change of pace from the more elaborate eating of the early days of their relationship.

“I think it was new when I first started dating someone,” she said. “When I first started dating this guy, we had more expensive and more expensive dinners. But now it's like: 'Let's not waste the money.'