Arne Semsrot: Seizing Power (Review)

Political scientist and democracy activist Arne Semsrot begins his book “The Takeover” with a fictional scenario: an election night in the near future. It is 6:03 p.m. and the champagne cork is popping because the AfD is the strongest force. It cannot govern alone, but without it it will be difficult. The reaction of the other parties is shocking, but not surprising. Ultimately, the AfD issues – immigration, deportations, gender-based bans – dominate the election campaign. At the end of a long evening, the CDU chairman raises the possibility of tolerating an AfD minority government. As Semsrot writes, it is a matter of “political responsibility of the state” and “saving the country from chaos.” Now?

This “And now?” is the introduction to a book that explores in detail what might happen. In the second part of the book, Samsrot formulates a “resistance manual” against a potential far-right government: resistance in offices, unions, the judiciary, companies, and the media.

So what does the scenario Semsrott has created look like? What could the AfD achieve as a minority government or as a junior partner? Major revolutionary changes to the law are unlikely because parliament is the legislator, not the federal government; and especially not a minority government. But that is not necessary, Semsrott says, because there is “an enormous amount of power below the legal level” and “many opportunities to make life hell for millions of people in Germany.” Like this?

“If the AfD has a ministry in its hands,” Semsrot writes, “its minister can determine the practical design of laws, issue internal regulations and instructions and hold central government posts without interference from parliament.” Which ministry does the party get? In Semsrot’s view, the AfD’s choice should be easy: the interior ministry. Because the police, the immigration and refugee offices and even the Office for the Protection of the Constitution are linked to this. And then?

First, replace employees: Political officials can be replaced at any time without giving reasons. Second, guide employees: In the future, the anti-discrimination agency could track anti-German sentiment, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution could focus primarily on left-wing extremism and thus withdraw employees from the “right-wing phenomenon area” – extremism; the police could stop disciplinary proceedings against police officers in right-wing extremist chat groups. Third, reallocate funds: For example, funds could be withdrawn from democratic projects and placed in a new funding pool for “anti-illegal immigration” associations. Semsrot lists a total of ten strategic steps.

None of these steps constitute the “one big step” that could be considered the final red line. Take the example above: The Office for the Protection of the Constitution will continue to nurture right-wing extremists, after drying up its staff.

Did Arne Semsrot write instructions for a right-wing extremist to “seize power”? No, he argues. For his scenario, he studied how far-right parties behave in other European countries – which is exactly what the AfD is doing.

So how plausible is the scenario created by Semsrot? According to the author, he analyzed not only current examples of right-wing and far-right populist strategies around the world, but also strategies from the Nazi era. Because: “Björn Höcke is a history teacher and he also looks at what the Nazi party did.”

The tone of the book is sometimes active, and at other times it seems unclear what actually happened or that it is a fictional scenario. And even if the examples change between the state and federal levels, it can be confusing, especially since this is not an insignificant detail in small-scale administrative responsibilities.

In Fragile Democracy: Strategies Against Populist Takeover, lawyer, author and constitutional blogger Maximilian Steinbeis, with a full research team, comes to conclusions similar to those reached by Semsrot in many places.

“It didn’t happen again yesterday,” Simsrott stresses. That’s why he calls on people in offices, unions, the judiciary, companies and the media to communicate democratically today and think about how to act if the worst comes to the worst.

Officials are obliged by the oath they took to the Basic Law to reject illegal orders and should seek allies at an early stage. Trade unions should explore the possibility of political strikes. Companies should clearly position themselves internally and externally against extremism and not accept orders from a far-right government.

The fact that a “power grab” by the far right seems so simple in the Samsrot scenario is also due to the politics of the past few years.

Creating dozens of positions in ministries and filling them with direct access from your party? Former Federal Interior Minister Horst Seehofer demonstrated this when he expanded his ministry to include the “homeland” region in 2018. Putting activists in prison without a crime? According to Semsrot, this has been made possible thanks to the recently tightened police laws in several federal states. “I think it has become very clear that the power of the executive, which we have seen increasing in recent years, means that if it falls into the wrong hands, a lot of dangerous things can be done with it,” says Semsrot.

His book is therefore also a call for politicians to exercise moderation and ensure the rule of law and democracy in the event of a “power grab.” Samsrot: “It does not just require an uprising of decent people, it requires an uprising of politicians. You can ensure the strengthening of democratic structures.”

Samsrot criticizes the failure to pass a law to strengthen democracy even after the million-strong democracy demonstrations in early 2024. Of course, politics is not entirely dormant: the traffic light government and the union recently agreed to strengthen the Constitutional Court against politically motivated influence.