Will This Deadly Asteroid Hit Earth in 2029? Scientists Say They'll Know for Sure by 2027

The suspense is unbearable.

rocky future

There's no need to panic, but the chances of a massive asteroid called Apophis hitting Earth have increased slightly.

It was originally scheduled to pass by us without causing any harm, New study Published in Journal of Planetary Science These projections suggest that there is actually a very small chance of an 1,100-foot-long piece of rock hitting our planet in the distant year 2029.

The odds are less than one in a billion, fortunately., It would take a cosmic pool hoax to make it happen, but going from no chance to slim chance is still unsettling when we're talking about a mini-apocalypse on our hands.

Fortunately, Apophis—named after the ancient Egyptian god of chaos—is not considered large enough to completely wipe out human civilization, but it is certainly Big enough to destroy an entire city.But the real killer, most likely, will be the wait: We can't rule out the possibility of a collision until 2027, according to the study.

stumbling block

First, it should be noted that Apophis, which astronomers have been monitoring since its discovery in 2004, is not currently preparing to attack Earth. The study’s sole author, Paul Wiegert, an astronomer at Canada’s Western University, found that Apophis is expected to pass our planet at a distance of several Earth diameters on April 13, 2029. very Soon – it will come between us and the moon – but no cigar.

But what's new is the possibility that Apophis's trajectory could change if it collides with another object, such as a smaller asteroid, along the way. According to Wiegert, none of the calculations made so far on its trajectory have taken this into account, as we haven't found any other asteroid that could intersect with it. Even an asteroid that Apophis collides with could change its trajectory. Studying A study by Wegert last March found that the odds of this happening were “zero“.”

But now Wiegert is backtracking. According to his latest findings, Wiegert says Apophis could be hit by small asteroids we can’t see yet. If one of those errant objects is no bigger than 11 feet across, that would be enough to send it on a collision course with our planet in 2029.

And if you hit an object even if it's only two feet wide, you might also put it on a collision course – but later, perhaps in 2036 or 2068.

Wait and see

However, these effects, even if they occur, must be addressed. completely The spacecraft is designed to turn Apophis into a missile aimed at Earth. By Wiegert’s calculations, the odds are less than one in two billion. Even the odds of a collision causing a major deflection—which wouldn’t necessarily put Apophis on a collision course—are less than one in a million.

Since Apophis is currently in the daytime sky, it won't be possible to observe it with telescopes until 2027. But even with a clear view, confirming that it was struck will be difficult, because by then most of the visible effects will have dissipated, Wiegert wrote.

Still, he’s optimistic that simple, direct observations of the asteroid that year will be enough to safely reduce the risk of collision—or perhaps confirm our impending doom. Until then, it’s out of our hands.

More about asteroids: Debris from NASA's asteroid collision appears to be heading toward Earth