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A range of potential disasters caused by climate change worry scientists, but some scenarios are so dire that experts are constantly monitoring how close we are to disaster.
This week brought some good news about one possible scenario in Antarctica: The so-called “doomsday glacier” may be more stable than previously thought, according to new research published Wednesday.
Thwaites Glacier, located in the vast West Antarctic Ice Sheet, has been called the “Doomsday Glacier” because of its potential to dramatically raise sea levels, flood low-lying coastal communities and displace millions of people.
Meanwhile, scientists continue to track a number of other potential factors that could exacerbate the climate problem. Possible scenarios include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Greenland Ice Sheet, which could radically reshape life on Earth in the coming years, decades or centuries.
Here is the latest news:
'Doomsday Glacier': Worst-case scenario unlikely for now
Thwaites Glacier has been studied for many years as an indicator of human-caused climate change.
In one nightmare scenario, melting ice could cause sea levels to rise by 50 feet. The Florida peninsula would be submerged, except for a strip of inland highlands from Gainesville to north of Lake Okeechobee, and the state’s coastal cities would be inundated.
That scenario seems unlikely now — for now, the new study says.
“We know that this extreme prediction is unlikely over the course of the 21st century,” Matthew Morlighem, lead author of the study and a professor of earth sciences at Dartmouth, said in a statement.
But the good news comes with a number of caveats. The authors stress that the accelerating loss of ice in Greenland and Antarctica is nevertheless dangerous.
“Unfortunately, Thwaites Glacier will retreat, along with most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but not as rapidly as one scenario suggested,” Morlighem told USA Today in an email. He added that while rapid collapse was a “low probability” scenario in the latest IPCC report, “we show that the odds of collapse are lower than we thought.”
He told USA TODAY that sea levels are likely to rise about 2-3 feet by the end of the century and continue to rise after that, as ice sheets continue to melt.
Greenland Ice Sheet: A Mixture of Good and Bad News
There have been conflicting reports about a worrying ice sheet in Greenland.
In all, the ice sheet covers more than 656,000 square miles, and if all of the ice melted, global sea levels would rise by about 20 feet. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
The news remains worrying in Greenland, which is losing about 270 billion tons of ice a year, adding to sea level rise, according to NASA. A study earlier this year found that Greenland's ice sheet is melting faster than researchers thought..
But a study last year found that the leaf may be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.
Essentially, the study found that “the worst-case scenario of ice sheet collapse and sea level rise could be avoided — and even partially reversed — if we could lower projected global temperatures after 2100,” he said earlier. Brian Hubbard, Professor of Glaciology at Aberystwyth University in Wales.
AMOC Collapse: Scientists Still Studying 'Day After' Ocean Current
the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Cycle The Arctic Ocean Circulation (AMOC) — a large system of ocean currents that carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic — could collapse by mid-century, or possibly any time from 2025 onward, due to human-caused climate change, A study published last year Suggests.
AMOC gained international attention in 2004 with the release of the scientifically inaccurate disaster film “The day after tomorrow“, which used such a disruption in the ocean current as a premise for the film.
A real-life collapse of the Atlantic gyre could lead to rapid changes in weather and climate in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. If it happens, it could lead to an ice age in Europe, sea level rise in cities like Boston and New York, and more powerful storms and hurricanes along the East Coast.
Another study Projections suggest the collapse could happen by 2050, but research is still in its early stages. Earlier this year, a study published found that the current collapse was coming at some point, but offered no clues about when it might happen.
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