Tesla robotaxi event comes after years of missed deadlines by Elon Musk

with Tesla Just hours away from the highly anticipated robotaxi event, investors will soon get a sneak peek at what CEO Elon Musk has dubbed the CyberCab.

After a decade of broken promises to deliver self-driving cars, capable of traveling reasonable distances safely without a human behind the wheel, there is a heavy dose of skepticism about what Tesla can do technologically, and when its robotaxis could arrive. The market already.

The robotaxi Day event, or “We, Robot,” is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM PT at Warner Bros. Studios. in Burbank, California and will be broadcast live on X.

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson warned in an Oct. 4 preview that conditions in a closed track at a movie studio could make a Tesla robo-taxi appear more advanced than it did in regular traffic and on public roads. CFRA has a Hold rating on the stock.

Tesla shares fell about 1% on Thursday to $238.77. They are now down nearly 4% for the year and more than 40% below the record high they reached in 2021.

The event comes a week after Tesla announced third-quarter deliveries of 462,890 vehicles, bringing the number to 1.35 million for the year so far. Throughout last year, Tesla reported deliveries of 1.81 million vehicles.

Bullish analysts at companies like Wedbush, ARK, and RBC Capital Markets have expressed optimism in their reports about the company's ability to maintain its growing sales over the long term, while introducing high-tech products, including the long-awaited self-driving vehicles, humanoid robots and other artificial intelligence products. . Paid products and services.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management told CNBC's “Fast Money” on Wednesday that he will be at the event and expects to test the robotaxi.

Munster, a longtime Tesla supporter, said he believes the company will roll out robotaxis in some cities by the end of 2025. Tesla is also expected to announce plans to produce an affordable electric car, perhaps just a stripped-down version of its Model 3, and a truck. Electric.

He said that while he expects the stock to decline after the event, it could “make new highs” over the next two years as deliveries begin to accelerate.

Tesla was once seen as a leader in the development of autonomous vehicles, but was never able to deliver or demonstrate robotaxi technology. The company is now considered underdeveloped.

alphabet Waymo in the US, and a number of Chinese companies, operate commercial taxi services today.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report on Wednesday that if Tesla could launch a “Level 4” robo-taxi, meaning it could operate without a driver at the wheel, using its current “hardware and software stack,” it would result in a prohibitive cost. Advantage per mile compared to peers.

In addition to missed deadlines, Tesla has had safety issues with its driver assistance systems, which are currently marketed as standard Autopilot and full self-driving (supervised) options.

Missy Cummings, a professor at George Mason University and director of the Mason Center for Autonomy and Robotics, said Tesla leaders must be able to determine how to solve a problem known as “phantom braking,” which refers to instances where vehicles equipped with advanced driver-assistance systems brake. They brake unexpectedly, even while driving at high highway speeds, with no visible obstacles around them.

Tesla's phantom braking problems are a topic Ongoing investigation By the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). “If they can't solve the phantom braking problem for a Level 2 car, they can't solve it for a Level 4 or 5 car,” Cummings, who previously served as a senior safety adviser to the regulator, told CNBC. Level 2 vehicles include driver assistance systems.

According to the data Tracked by NHTSA Starting in 2021, there have been 1,399 crashes in which Tesla's driver assistance systems were triggered within 30 seconds of the crash, and 31 of those crashes resulted in reported fatalities.

Musk or other Tesla executives should be able to determine exactly how they plan to operate their cars in different weather, such as fog, rain, snow, lighting, or in dark tunnels, said Sam Abu Al-Samad, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights.

He also wants Tesla executives to say whether they will accept full responsibility for operating these vehicles, which he calls “table stakes for a true robotaxi without human controls.”

Finally, Abu Al-Samid wants to know if Tesla plans to own, operate, lease or sell robotaxis to consumers and fleet operators.

Abu Al-Samad said: “Many companies have made progress in the aspect of automated driving technology.” “But they stumbled when it came to figuring out a business model that could be profitable. Tesla has a lot of challenges to overcome and I want to know how all the pieces fall into place.”

He watches: It will be another five years before we see a Waymo-like car from Tesla